After a universally panned outing at the Apex Center, the Octagon goes back to the land down under for UFC 305. For the first defense of his middleweight title, Dricus Du Plessis makes the trip to enemy territory to face former champ Israel Adesanya. Further down on the card, a host of fighters from the Oceanic Region round out the evening in Perth, Australia.
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Here are some bold UFC 305 predictions
Dricus Du Plessis (21-2) vs. Israel Adesanya (24-3)
If this fight happened when it was originally intended to, this wouldn’t be a very difficult pick to make. Instead, Sean Strickland substituted for Du Plessis, authored one of the UFC’s most improbable title wins, and laid a blueprint for the South African to follow.
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If Du Plessis borrows from that playbook and keeps Adesanya under pressure, it will go a long way in helping him retain the belt. That’s very likely the plan but the real question is what “The Last Stylebender” will look like after his lopsided loss and nearly a year on the shelf.
However, if we see any other version of Adesanya than we did last September, he should find his spots to counter and play bull to the matador. Once he has his rhythm and a sense for DDP’s timing, it should only be a matter of time.
Prediction: Adesanya by TKO, 4th Round
Kai Kara France (24-11) vs. Steve Erceg (12-2)
While Steve Erceg is fresh off of his first attempt at claiming championship gold in the UFC, his flyweight co-main event with Kai Kara France could represent a passing the torch moment. Even though France is only two years older than Erceg, his extra six years as a professional fighter mean he has far more miles.
Urceg’s close loss to champion Alexandre Pantoja shows that “AstroBoy” has more than enough to compete at the top of the division. Expect this to be closely contested, but Urceg should emerge victorious after a hard fought battle.
Prediction: Erceg by Decision
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2) vs. Dan Hooker (23-12)
Dan Hooker has had one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. His main card attraction with Mateusz Gamrot is no exception. Gamrot’s ability to consistently drag down and neutralize his opponents feels like stylistic kryptonite to the City Kickboxing product that prefers to strike at range with his long limbs.
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Unless Hooker can land something big early to halt Gamrot’s attack, that’s exactly what can be expected here. “The Hangman” may be able to stop any finishing attempts but the clock will work against him.
Prediction: Gamrot by Decision
Tai Tuivasa (14-7) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5)
Tai Tuivasa and Jarzinho Rozenstruik fills the quota for a heavyweight action affair that is very unlikely to make it to the final bell. The wild and powerful style of Tuivasa, backed by the support of his hometown crowd, and the far more sophisticated striking attack of Rozenstruik should make for an interesting pair.
As unlikely as we are to see a decision here, we’re even more unlikely to see this hit the floor. That being said, Rozenstruik has the ability to further expose the big holes in Tuivasa’s offense. Of course, there’s always the possibility of “Bam Bam” landing a kill shot out of nowhere. But that would mean he’d show far more durability than he’s shown in his current four fight skid.
Prediction: Rozenstruik by KO, 2nd Round
Jingliang Li (19-8) vs. Carlos Prates (19-6)
Jingliang Li makes his return after a spine injury forced him to the sidelines for over a year. Meanwhile Carlos Prates will be making a noticeable leap in competition almost a year after his Contender Series appearance.
While Prates lacks the high-level experience that Li has, he’s the younger and fresher fighter with proven finishing ability. The fact that his opponent is bouncing back from a severe injury and long layoff should close the gap on his way to a victory.
Prediction: Prates by Decision
Complete UFC 305 predictions and odds
Main Card
- Dricus Du Plessis (+105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-125): Adesanya by TKO, 4th Round
- Kai Kara-France (+170) vs. Steve Erceg (-205): Erceg by Decision
- Mateusz Gamrot (-325) vs. Dan Hooker (+260): Gamrot by Decision
- Tai Tuivasa (+136) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-162): Rozenstruik by KO, 2nd Round
- Jingliang Li (+210) vs. Carlos Prates (-258): Prater by Decision
Preliminary Card
- Junior Tafa (-105) vs. Valter Walker (-115): Walker by Decision
- Josh Culibao (-166) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+140): Ramos by TKO, 3rd Round
- Casey O’Neill (+140) vs. Luana Santos (-166): O’Neill by Decision
- Jack Jenkins (-535) vs. Herbert Burns (+400): Jenkins by TKO, 1st Round
- Tom Nolan (-1100) vs. Alex Reyes (+700): Nolan by KO, 1st Round
- Kenan Song (-230) vs. Ricky Glenn (+190): Song by KO, 3rd Round
- Stewart Nicoll (-162) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+136): Nicoll by Decision
